Modern encryption systems including RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) form the backbone of today’s digital security. However, these classical algorithms are under serious threat from the future development of cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs). While current expert estimates suggest such machines may not arrive until after 2035, recent breakthroughs in quantum technologies indicate that this timeline may be overly conservative.

Over the past few years, major advances in quantum hardware and algorithm design have opened the door to faster progress than previously thought. This report, Quantum Technologies and the Cryptographic Threat Timeline: A Strategic Overview, examines a curated set of the most promising technologies including surface codes, topological qubits, cat qubits, partial entanglement, and QAOA (Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm). Each of these emerging technologies offers a way to reduce the number of qubits or error correction overhead needed for CRQCs, and when combined, their synergistic effects could accelerate the arrival of quantum threats sooner than anticipated.

The key message is clear: the time to act is now. Organizations must begin planning for the post-quantum era by identifying vulnerable cryptographic assets, adopting post-quantum cryptography, and preparing for a compressed threat timeline. Quantum risk is no longer distant problem; it is advancing rapidly and demands a proactive strategic response.